Weekly · Energy shock and inflation · September 6–12, 2026

Key points

US-Iran military escalation

The conflict between the US and Iran has entered a phase of direct destruction of export infrastructure. On September 6, the US destroyed three Iranian oil tankers, and on September 8, five more, including vessels near Harg Island. In response, on September 9, Iran launched 20 ballistic missiles at US forces in Jordan (18 were intercepted) and claimed strikes on destroyers and 10 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. On September 10–11, damage was recorded at US bases in Jordan and Bahrain, as well as the capture of a US underwater drone by Iran. On September 11, the Houthis attacked refineries in Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 people and halting operations at several facilities. As of September 12, the US had intercepted 99 merchant ships as part of a naval blockade, while Iran announced it was seeking alternative routes.

Inflation shock and Fed tightening

The energy crisis directly translated into US macroeconomic indicators. On September 6, employment data (162,000 new jobs) raised the probability of a 25 basis point central bank of the United States rate hike to 60%. On September 10, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year, and diesel prices jumped 24.1% in a month, increasing the odds of a rate hike in September to 70% and in December to 60%. On September 11, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.3%. Markets began pricing in multiple rate hikes, and the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds reached a 19-year high. On September 12, the average price of diesel in the US exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time.

ECB and the European energy crisis

The European Central Bank responded to the energy shock by raising rates. On September 10, the ECB Governing Council raised its three key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate reached 2.5%, and the overnight lending rate rose to 2.9%. The decision was driven by accelerating inflation in the eurozone, which reached 3.3% in August amid a 14.3% increase in energy prices. ECB President Christine Lagarde called the decision "completely obvious" against the backdrop of a potential new gas crisis. Gas storage levels in Europe are significantly below normal due to delayed purchases during the summer. On September 9, gas futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose to $950.3 per 1,000 cubic meters (€78.925 per MWh), marking a high since December 2022.

US and China: espionage and trade friction

Relations between the US and China have deteriorated amid accusations of industrial espionage. On September 9–10, US intelligence agencies (NSA, CISA, FBI) accused six Chinese companies (including DeepSeek, Moonshot AI, and Alibaba) of large-scale distillation of data from American AI models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) using millions of requests and proxy servers. On September 12, the deputy director of the CIA stated that Chinese companies are "legitimate targets" for intelligence gathering in the AI and semiconductor sectors. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce threatened retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, the US stated that China is fulfilling its commitments to purchase $17 billion worth of American agricultural products, while Washington and Beijing are discussing merging the AI dialogue with economic negotiations ahead of Xi Jinping's visit to the US.

Restructuring of global supply chains

Global flows of energy and goods are being restructured amid conflicts. In August, China imported 8.93 million barrels of oil per day, actively purchasing discounted Russian oil, while the margins of independent Chinese refineries fell to zero. India reduced gold imports by 30% due to higher tariffs, and sugar prices rose by 21.5% in August due to drought and harvest problems in the EU and Brazil. In the US, a record volume of battery system installations was recorded (20.2 GWh in the second quarter), but a national state of emergency prohibits the use of Chinese energy storage systems, creating risks of project delays. In Europe, copper on the LME reached a record $14,800 per tonne due to the threat of US tariffs, but then fell by 4.6% following reports of a suspension of the tariff plan.

What this means

The energy shock and geopolitical tensions are creating an environment of persistently high interest rates and commodity market volatility. If you have variable-rate obligations or dependence on energy-intensive production, you must account for the risks of further rate hikes in the US and eurozone, as well as energy price volatility.

In the technology sector and AI, the risk of export controls and supply chain disruption is intensifying due to mutual espionage accusations between the US and China. If you use Chinese components or cloud services, you should assess the risks of interruptions and stricter compliance requirements.

In logistics and trade, it is necessary to account for the risks of naval blockades and strikes on infrastructure in the Middle East and the Black Sea. If your supply chains pass through the Strait of Hormuz or the Black Sea, expect rising insurance premiums and delays. Monitor the central bank of the United States's decisions on September 15–16 and the ECB's move in December, as well as the dynamics of diesel and gas prices in Europe.

Beneath the surface

Amid the main headlines, processes have been developing that could have long-term consequences. In Lithuania, a seimas committee voted to lift the constitutional ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons, which could change the balance of power in NATO. In Brazil, the Supreme Court has been drawn into a political crisis due to a scandal involving a Brazilian bank, creating uncertainty ahead of the elections. In South Korea, the president proposed a record budget for 2027 of 821 trillion won, which received positive assessments from Fitch and Moody's. In India, SEBI launched a pilot project for tokenizing corporate bonds with settlements in digital rupees. In the UK, relations with Israel have worsened due to a ban on importing goods from settlements in the West Bank.

Our read

The period is characterized by explicit escalation of armed conflicts and trade wars, which directly translates into tighter financial conditions. On the escalation axis, the dominant factor is the direct military confrontation between the US and Iran, accompanied by the destruction of export infrastructure and strikes on bases, as well as open espionage accusations between the US and China. The counter-argument is the preservation of diplomatic channels (Xi Jinping's visit, negotiations on Iran), although their effectiveness is questionable. On the financial conditions axis, there is unequivocal tightening: the energy shock has accelerated inflation, forcing markets to price in multiple rate hikes by the central bank of the United States and the ECB, while yields on long-term US bonds have reached multi-year highs. The counter-argument is the US Treasury's attempt to curb rising yields through bond buybacks, but so far this has not yielded results. On the systemic stress axis, risks are growing: disruptions in energy supply chains, the ban on Chinese energy storage systems in the US, and the threat of food inflation are placing a strain on the global economy. The counter-argument is the high resilience of capital markets and corporate earnings. Monitoring the decisions of the central bank of the United States and the ECB, as well as the dynamics of diesel and gas prices, will be a key indicator of further developments. The overall signal is mixed, with a clear tilt toward stagflationary risks.

This analysis was produced automatically by a large-language-model system from the public sources listed below. It is AI-generated content: it reflects the sources and the model's processing, not an editorial opinion, and may contain inaccuracies. It is not investment, financial or legal advice and contains no call to action; base decisions on the original sources and on advice from qualified professionals.

Sources