Daily · Fed Hike and Global Energy Crisis · September 17, 2026

Key points

Fed Hike Resets Global Rate Path

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00 percent range on Wednesday, September 16, in a unanimous 12-0 vote. This is the first increase since July 2023. The FOMC median projection now expects the rate to reach 4.1 percent by end-2026, up from the June projection of 3.8 percent, signaling a possible further increase later this year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stated that inflation has been running above the Fed's 2 percent target for more than five years and that the predominant focus is on the price-stability side of the mandate.

The decision came as core consumer price index recorded a 0.3 percent monthly gain last month, 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast. The Fed raised its 2026 US GDP growth forecast to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent and its 2027 GDP growth forecast to 2.4 percent from 2.3 percent. PCE inflation is projected at 3.7 percent end-2026, up from 3.6 percent in June. Sixteen of 18 FOMC dot plot participants expected at least one more rate hike in 2026. Futures markets priced in a further 75 basis-point increase in the next six months, and Goldman Sachs moved its forecast for the next hike forward to October.

President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that US interest rates should be 1 percent or less, claiming that stopping trade with every country running a trade surplus with the U.S. would generate at least US$1.5 trillion a year. White House spokesperson Kush Desai called the Fed's move a 'rather unfortunate decision' that was 'not, from the administration's point of view, backed by a compelling economic case.' Senator Chuck Schumer said, 'This is going to make everything become more expensive.' Major US banks JP Morgan, KeyCorp and BNY all raised their prime lending rate on Wednesday to 7% from 6.75%.

US Passes Russia Sanctions Bill

The US House of Representatives passed the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 by a 262-159 vote on Wednesday evening, September 16. The bill had previously passed the Senate by an 86-11 vote in August. The legislation authorizes President Trump to impose up to 100% tariffs on the five largest importers of Russian oil and natural gas, targeting major buyers including China and India without explicitly naming them. It also provides for restrictions on top Russian politicians, military officials, and state companies, along with secondary sanctions on Russia's trading partners.

A White House official confirmed that Trump intends to sign the bill into law. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) argued on the House floor that the tariffs would worsen economic pain for Americans and would not concretely help Ukraine without a security assistance package. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said he planned to withhold support, arguing the bill does not require the president to impose sanctions and contains loopholes; however, 58 House Democrats voted against Jeffries's position. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that Beijing 'firmly opposes illegal unilateral sanctions and extra-territorial jurisdiction that lack a basis in international law.' India's Ministry of External Affairs said it remains committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people and will continue through diversified sourcing.

Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Tightens Supply

Drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West crude pipeline, an important alternative export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Standard Chartered estimates the key bypass route to Yanbu is expected to remain largely out of service for several weeks and that Saudi Arabia has only around one week of crude stocks at its ports to sustain exports at current rates. Kpler estimates crude inventories at Yanbu have fallen below 15 million barrels, down from almost 21 million barrels in July, representing little more than four days of theoretical supply at an export rate of 3.5 million barrels per day.

Saudi Aramco informed European customers that some September-loading cargoes will be cancelled or postponed. The attacks are the first test of a new defence pact among Saudi Arabia, NATO member Turkey, and nuclear power Pakistan, though officials from Turkey and Pakistan told AP they have not received a Saudi request for support. Saudi Arabia has asked France, Britain, Pakistan, and Egypt to deploy air-defense teams due to the US's depleted stock of interceptors. Brent crude for November delivery fell 2.88% to $105.6 per barrel, while WTI crude for October delivery declined 3.33% to $102.3 per barrel.

BoE Holds Rates, Announces QT Plan

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% on September 16. Three members voted to increase by 0.25 percentage points to 4%. UK CPI inflation increased to 3.1% in August and is likely to rise further over coming quarters. The MPC voted to reduce UK government bond purchases to zero by 2034, selling £20 billion annually alongside maturing gilts. On September 16, the stock of UK government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £488 billion.

After setting aside £120 billion of the longest-dated gilts for banknote issuance, £368 billion remained to be unwound: £222 billion to mature passively and £146 billion to be sold. At an annual sales pace of £20 billion alongside anticipated redemptions, this corresponds to an average annual reduction of £46 billion until September 2034. Governor Andrew Bailey stated that UK mortgage rates have risen by nearly 1% since the end of February when the conflict began, representing a substantial tightening of monetary conditions.

SEC Clears Path for Tokenized Stocks

The SEC introduced a 5-year 'innovation exemption' permitting blockchain-based trading venues to list and trade tokenized securities without meeting the definition of an 'exchange' under US securities law. The exemption excludes synthetic security tokens that are derivatives and do not provide ownership of the shares; only tokens representing real ownership with dividend and voting rights qualify. No formal SEC designation is required; platforms need only provide notice before opening a tokenization operation. Tokenized securities venues must give 30-day notice and an opportunity for issuers to object before tokenizing another company's securities.

Citi analysts estimate tokenized assets could grow into a $5.5 trillion market by 2030. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act stalled in the Senate on Tuesday after receiving only 49 of the 60 votes needed to proceed. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the exemption allows firms to operate 'in a permissioned environment today while the commission considers the need for additional action to facilitate onchain trading.' Coinbase, Robinhood, Gemini, and Kraken have launched offshore tokenized equity offerings but have yet to offer them to US customers.

Trump Threatens EU Over Canada Ties

President Donald Trump threatened to impose 'very serious tariffs' on the EU or stop trading with Europe on many things if he considers the EU's plan to make Canada its first associate member a hostile act. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her annual state of the EU address in Strasbourg that the EU wants to bring its relationship with Canada 'to the highest level possible.' Associate membership does not currently exist as a formal category under EU treaties; any such arrangement would need to be created and ratified by member states.

Canadian PM Mark Carney told the European Parliament on Thursday, September 17, that Canada welcomes the proposal to become the EU's first associate member. Carney said the proposal covers deeper Canada-Europe integration across trade, defence, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, energy, space, research, and financial services. Trump described the prospect of Canada becoming the first associate member of the EU as laughable and threatened the bloc with tariffs if he deemed the move a hostile act.

Our read

The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot, combined with the Bank of England's commitment to quantitative tightening, signals a sustained period of higher global interest rates that will increase funding costs for technology and financial-sector decisions across the EU, Switzerland, and the Gulf. The passage of the US Russia sanctions bill introduces significant trade risk for energy importers in China and India, potentially disrupting global oil and gas markets. The Saudi pipeline shutdown and record tanker freight rates highlight the fragility of energy supply chains, with direct implications for inflation and corporate margin planning. The SEC's Innovation Exemption removes a key regulatory barrier for onchain capital-market infrastructure, while the failure of the Clarity Act leaves US crypto without an overarching federal framework. Decision-makers should review exposure to interest rate risk, energy supply disruptions, and regulatory changes in tokenized securities.

This analysis was produced automatically by a large-language-model system from the public sources listed below. It is AI-generated content: it reflects the sources and the model's processing, not an editorial opinion, and may contain inaccuracies. It is not investment, financial or legal advice and contains no call to action; base decisions on the original sources and on advice from qualified professionals.

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